United States presidential election in Maine, 2004 Article

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United States presidential election in Maine, 2004

←  2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
  John F. Kerry.jpg George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 396,842 330,201
Percentage 53.57% 44.58%

Maine Presidential Election Results by Shaded County, 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Maine took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Starting which, Maine is one of two states in the U.S. that instead of all of the state's 4 electors of the Electoral College to vote based upon the statewide results of the voters, two of the individual electors vote based on their congressional district because Maine has two congressional districts. The other two electors vote based upon the statewide results.

Maine was considered by some as a swing state, because of how polls were very close. [1] However, polls were consistently won by Kerry and neither campaign took the state too seriously. On election day, Democrat John Kerry won the popular vote with 53.57% over George W. Bush with 44.58%.

Caucuses

Campaign

Polling

Out of 15 pre-election polls, Kerry won thirteen of them. By the end of October, all polls showed Kerry over 50%. The final Real Clear Politics average showed Kerry leading 51% to 41.5% with a margin of 9.5%. [2] In three Survey USA polls taken in October, Kerry's numbers increased each time from 49% to 51% to 52%. Also, the final three polls averaged Kerry with 51% to Bush at 45%. [3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $362,522. [4] Kerry raised $1,057,209. [5]

Advertising and visits

Since March 3, 2004 Kerry didn't visit the state once, as Bush visited the state 5 times. [6] A rough total estimate of $400,000 was spent on advertising each week, excluding the last week. [7]

Analysis

Maine is located in New England, an area that has become a hotbed for the Democratic Party. It was once a typical Yankee Republican state, but no Republican presidential nominee has carried Maine since George H.W. Bush in 1988. While George W. Bush somewhat seriously contested the state in 2000 and 2004. Kerry also won in both of Maine's two Congressional districts, thus taking all four of the state's electoral votes. No candidate got over 60% in any county. Though Maine was historically a Republican stronghold, in recent years it has trended Democratic in Presidential elections; it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 1988. The combination of the above information and the fact that Maine is in the very liberal New England region of the U.S., it has led analysts to portray Maine as a blue state in future elections. This was also the most recent election when Maine's second congressional district did not vote for the overall winning candidate who won the overall electoral college vote.

Results

Statewide

United States presidential election in Maine, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 396,842 53.57% 4
Republican George W. Bush ( incumbent) 330,201 44.58% 0
The Better Life Ralph Nader 8,069 1.09% 0
Green David Cobb 2,936 0.40% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 1,965 0.27% 0
Others - 739 0.10% 0
Totals - 100.00% 4
Voter turnout -

Congressional district

Kerry won both congressional districts. [8]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 43% 55% Tom Allen
2nd 46% 52% Michael Michaud

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others# Total
Androscoggin County 54.40% 30,503 43.73% 24,519 1.86% 1,045 56,067
Aroostook County 51.86% 19,569 46.55% 17,564 1.59% 600 37,733
Cumberland County 58.20% 94,846 40.12% 65,384 1.68% 2,732 162,962
Franklin County 54.83% 9,465 42.74% 7,378 2.42% 418 17,261
Hancock County 54.49% 18,048 43.49% 14,405 2.02% 669 33,122
Kennebec County 53.34% 35,616 44.57% 29,761 2.09% 1,395 66,772
Knox County 54.59% 12,690 43.46% 10,103 1.95% 454 23,247
Lincoln County 51.26% 11,351 46.83% 10,370 1.90% 421 22,142
Oxford County 52.68% 16,618 45.00% 14,196 2.32% 732 31,546
Penobscot County 49.22% 40,417 49.10% 40,318 1.68% 1,377 82,112
Piscataquis County 44.36% 4,409 53.31% 5,299 2.33% 232 9,940
Sagadahoc County 52.69% 11,107 45.05% 9,497 2.25% 475 21,079
Somerset County 50.00% 13,555 47.78% 12,953 2.21% 600 27,108
Waldo County 51.77% 11,555 46.19% 10,309 2.03% 454 22,318
Washington County 48.47% 8,391 49.79% 8,619 1.73% 300 17,310
York County 53.35% 58,702 45.01% 49,526 1.64% 1,805 110,033

Electors

Technically the voters of Maine cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Maine is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded just 2 of the electoral votes. The other 2 electoral votes are based upon the congressional district results. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. [9] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. Since Kerry won both congressional districts, all 4 were pledged to Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Lu Bauer, elector for the 1st Congressional district.
  2. David Garrity, elector for the 2nd Congressional district.
  3. Jill Duson, at-large elector.
  4. Samuel Shapiro, at-large elector.

References

  1. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  2. ^ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/me_polls.html
  3. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=23
  4. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  5. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. ^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  9. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.

See also