2020 United States elections Article

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2020 United States elections
Presidential election year
Election dayNovember 3
Incumbent president Donald Trump (Republican) [a]
Next Congress 117th
Senate elections
Seats contested33 of 100 seats
Color coded map of 2020 Senate races
Map of the 2020 Senate races

  Democratic incumbent
  Republican incumbent
  No election

House elections
Seats contestedAll 435 voting-members
All 6 non-voting delegates
Color coded map of 2020 House of Representatives races
Map of the 2020 House of Representatives elections

  Democratic incumbent
  Republican incumbent
  Undetermined incumbent

Gubernatorial elections
Seats contested13 (11 states, 2 territories)
Color coded map of 2020 gubernatorial races
Map of the 2020 gubernatorial races

  Democratic incumbent eligible for re-election
  Term-limited or retiring Democrat
  Republican incumbent eligible for re-election
  Term-limited or retiring Republican
  No election

The 2020 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate, and the office of President of the United States will be contested. Thirteen state and territorial governorships, as well as numerous other state and local elections, will also be contested.

Both parties will attempt to win unified control of Congress and the presidency in the 2020 elections. Incumbent Republican President Donald Trump will seek re-election in the 2020 presidential election. Each major party will choose a presidential nominee through a series of primaries and caucuses, culminating in a national convention held in mid-2020. Barring vacancies and party-switching, Republicans will enter the 2020 elections with a majority of at least 53 seats in the Senate, while Democrats will enter the election with a majority of at least 235 seats in the House.

Eleven of the 50 states, as well as two of the five territories, will hold gubernatorial elections. The vast majority of states will hold state legislative elections. The outcome of these elections will have a major impact on the redistricting that will take place following the 2020 United States Census.

Federal elections

Presidential election

The United States presidential election of 2020 will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and incumbent Republican Vice President Mike Pence will both be eligible to run for a second term. Trump has announced he will seek a second term. [1] Though he is widely considered to be likely to win re-nomination, Trump may face a challenge in the Republican primaries. [2] The Republican ticket will be nominated at the 2020 Republican National Convention, held in August 2020.

Other parties, including the Democratic Party and various third parties, will also field presidential candidates. Like the Republican primaries, the 2020 Democratic primaries will take place from early 2020 to mid-2020. The Democratic ticket will be nominated at the 2020 Democratic National Convention, held in July 2020. Other parties will conduct various processes to choose their presidential tickets, and independent candidates may also seek the presidency.

The individual who wins a majority of the presidential electoral vote (270 of the 538 electoral votes) will win the presidential election. The current electoral vote distribution was determined by the 2010 census. Each elector is chosen by the states and is charged with casting one vote for president and one vote for vice president. Most states award all of their electoral votes to the individual who wins a majority or plurality of that state's popular vote, although two states award electors by congressional districts. If no individual wins a majority of the electoral vote, then the United States House of Representatives will hold a contingent election to determine the winner. [b] The vice president is selected in a similar manner, though a contingent election will be held in the United States Senate if no individual receives a majority of the vice presidential electoral vote.

Congressional elections

Senate elections

Control of Senate seats by class after the 2018 elections
Class Democratic Independent Republican Next
elections
1 21 2 11 2024
2 12 0 20 2020
3 12 0 22 2022
Total 45 2 53

At least 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be up for election. All seats of Senate Class II will be up for election; the winners of those elections will serve six-year terms. Additionally, Arizona will hold a special election to a fill a Class III Senate vacancy; the winner of that election will serve a two-year term. Other states may also hold special elections.

Republicans won control of the Senate in the 2014 Senate elections. They retained that majority through the 2016 and most recent 2018 Senate elections. Depending on the outcome of one undetermined race, Republicans will hold either 52 or 53 Senate seats, Democrats will hold either 45 or 46 seats, and independents will hold two seats. Both independents have caucused with the Democratic Party since joining the Senate. Barring further vacancies or party switching, 21 Republican-held seats, along with 12 Democratic-held seats, will be up for election. If they win the vice presidency, Democrats will need to win a total of at least 50 seats to take the majority; otherwise, they will need to win at least 51 seats to take the majority.

House of Representatives elections

All 435 voting seats in the United States House of Representatives will be up for election. The winners of each race will serve a two-year term. Additionally, elections will be held to select the Delegate for the District of Columbia as well as the delegates from U.S. territories. This includes the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, a position with a four-year term.

Democrats won control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 elections. Depending on the outcome of an uncontested race, Democrats will control between 234 and 235 seats in the House of Representatives, while Republicans will control between 200 and 201 seats. To take the majority, Republicans will have to win a total of at least 218 seats.

State elections

Partisan control of states prior to the 2019 elections.
  Democratic trifecta
  Republican trifecta
  Divided government
  Officially non-partisan legislature

Gubernatorial elections

Elections will be held for the governorships of 11 U.S. states and two U.S. territories. Special elections may be held for vacancies in the other states and territories, if required by respective state/territorial constitutions. Most elections will be for four-year terms, but the governors of New Hampshire and Vermont each serve two-year terms.

Barring vacancies and party switching, Republicans will be defending seven seats, while Democrats will be defending six seats. At least two Democratic incumbents and at least one Republican incumbent will not seek seek election to another term.

Legislative elections

Most states will hold state legislative elections in 2020. Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia will not hold state legislative elections, Michigan will only hold elections for the lower house, and North Dakota will only hold elections for the upper house. In states that use staggered terms, some state senators will not be up for election.

After the 2018 elections, Democrats have 14 trifectas (control of the governor's office and both legislative chambers), Republicans have 22 trifectas, and 13 states have a divided government (excluding Nebraska, which has a non-partisan legislature). [3] In the 2019 elections, Democrats have an opportunity to gain a trifecta in Virginia, Republicans have the opportunity to gain a trifecta in Kentucky, while both parties could gain a trifecta in Louisiana and Mississippi. Both parties could potentially gain several trifectas in the 2020 elections.

Impact on redistricting

A census will be conducted in 2020, after which the United States House of Representatives and state legislatures will undergo redistricting, and the state delegations to the United States House of Representatives will undergo reapportionment. In states without redistricting commissions, the legislators and governors elected between 2017 and 2020 will draw the new Congressional and state legislative districts that will take effect starting with the 2022 elections. If either party does well in the 2020 elections, they could gain a significant advantage in electing their candidates to the state legislature and the United States House of Representatives until the next round of redistricting in 2030. [4]

Local elections

Mayoral elections

Mayoral elections were held in many cities, including:

Other elections and referenda

Table of state, territorial, and federal results

This table shows the partisan results of president, congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative races held in each state and territory in 2020. Note that not all states and territories hold gubernatorial, state legislative, and United States Senate elections in 2018. The territories and Washington, D.C. do not elect members of the United States Senate, and the territories do not take part in presidential elections. Washington, D.C. and the five inhabited territories each elect one non-voting member of the United States House of Representatives. Nebraska's unicameral legislature and the governorship and legislature of American Samoa are officially non-partisan. In the table, offices/legislatures that are not up for election in 2019 or 2020 are already filled in for the "after 2020 elections" section, although vacancies or party switching could potentially lead to a flip in partisan control.


Subdivision and PVI [5] Before 2020 elections [6] [7] After 2020 elections
Subdivision PVI Governor State leg. U.S. Senate U.S. House President Governor State leg. U.S. Senate U.S. House
Alabama R+14 Rep Rep Split Rep 6–1 Rep Rep
Alaska R+9 Rep Rep Rep Rep 1–0 Rep
Arizona R+5 Rep Rep Split Dem 5–4 Rep
Arkansas R+15 Rep Rep Rep Rep 4–0 Rep
California D+12 Dem Dem Dem Dem 46–7 Dem Dem
Colorado D+1 Dem Dem Split Dem 4–3 Dem
Connecticut D+6 Dem Dem Dem Dem 5–0 Dem Dem
Delaware D+6 Dem Dem Dem Dem 1–0
Florida R+2 Rep Rep Rep Rep 14–13 Rep Rep
Georgia R+5 Rep Rep Rep Rep 9–5 Rep
Hawaii D+18 Dem Dem Dem Dem 2–0 Dem Dem
Idaho R+19 Rep Rep Rep Rep 2–0 Rep
Illinois D+7 Dem Dem Dem Dem 13–5 Dem
Indiana R+9 Rep Rep Rep Rep 7–2 Rep
Iowa R+3 Rep Rep Rep Dem 3–1 Rep
Kansas R+13 Dem Rep Rep Rep 3–1 Dem
Kentucky R+15 Rep Rep Rep 5–1
Louisiana R+11 Rep Rep 5–1
Maine D+3 Dem Dem Split R/I [c] Dem 2–0 Dem
Maryland D+12 Rep Dem Dem Dem 7–1 Rep Dem Dem
Massachusetts D+12 Rep Dem Dem Dem 9–0 Rep
Michigan D+1 Dem Rep Dem Split 7–7 Dem
Minnesota D+1 Dem Split Dem Dem 5–3 Dem
Mississippi R+9 Rep Rep 3–1
Missouri R+9 Rep Rep Rep Rep 6–2 Rep
Montana R+11 Dem Rep Split Rep 1–0
Nebraska R+14 Rep NP Rep Rep 3–0 Rep NP
Nevada D+1 Dem Dem Dem Dem 3–1 Dem Dem
New Hampshire Even Rep Dem Dem Dem 2–0
New Jersey D+7 Dem Dem Dem 11–1 Dem
New Mexico D+3 Dem Dem Dem Dem 3–0 Dem
New York D+11 Dem Dem Dem Dem 21–6 Dem Dem
North Carolina R+3 Dem Rep Rep Rep 9–3
North Dakota R+17 Rep Rep Rep Rep 1–0 Rep
Ohio R+3 Rep Rep Split Rep 12–4 Rep Split
Oklahoma R+20 Rep Rep Rep Rep 4–1 Rep
Oregon D+5 Dem Dem Dem Dem 4–1 Dem
Pennsylvania Even Dem Rep Split Split 9–9 Dem Split
Rhode Island D+10 Dem Dem Dem Dem 2–0 Dem
South Carolina R+8 Rep Rep Rep Rep 5–2 Rep
South Dakota R+14 Rep Rep Rep Rep 1–0 Rep
Tennessee R+14 Rep Rep Rep Rep 7–2 Rep
Texas R+8 Rep Rep Rep Rep 23–13 Rep
Utah R+20 Rep Rep Rep Rep 3–1 Rep
Vermont D+15 Rep Dem Split D/I [d] Dem 1–0 Split D/I [d]
Virginia D+1 Dem Dem Dem 7–4 Dem
Washington D+7 Dem Dem Dem Dem 7–3 Dem
West Virginia R+20 Rep Rep Split Rep 3–0
Wisconsin Even Dem Rep Split Rep 5–3 Dem Split
Wyoming R+25 Rep Rep Rep Rep 1–0 Rep
United States Even N/A N/A Rep Dem N/A N/A
Washington, D.C. D+43 Dem [e] Dem [e] N/A Dem N/A
American Samoa N/A NP NP Rep N/A NP NP
Guam Dem Dem Dem
N. Mariana Islands Rep Rep Ind [f]
Puerto Rico PNP/D [g] PNP PNP/R [h]
U.S. Virgin Islands Dem Dem Dem
Subdivision PVI Governor State leg. U.S. Senate U.S. House President Governor State leg. U.S. Senate U.S. House
Subdivision and PVI Before 2020 elections After 2020 elections

Notes

  1. ^ Assuming that he serves the remainder of his four-year term, Trump will be the presidential incumbent during the 2020 elections.
  2. ^ In a contingent election, the House of Representatives can choose from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation of the House of Representatives receives one vote. For example, the state delegation of Alabama (consisting of 7 representatives) and the state delegation of Alaska (consisting of one representative) each collectively receive one vote.
  3. ^ One of Maine's senators, Susan Collins, is a Republican. The other senator from Maine, Angus King, is an independent who has caucused with the Democrats since taking office in 2013.
  4. ^ a b One of Vermont's senators, Patrick Leahy, is a Democrat. The other senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, was elected as an independent and has caucused with the Democrats since taking office in 2007.
  5. ^ a b Washington, D.C. does not elect a governor or state legislature, but it does elect a mayor and a city council.
  6. ^ The Northern Mariana Islands' delegate to Congress, Gregorio Sablan, was elected as an Independent and has caucused with the Democrats since taking office in 2009.
  7. ^ Puerto Rican Governor Ricardo Rosselló was elected as a member of the New Progressive Party, but affiliates with the Democratic Party at the national level.
  8. ^ Puerto Rico's Resident Commissioner, Jenniffer González, was elected as a member of the New Progressive Party and has caucused with the Republicans since taking office in 2017.

References

  1. ^ Westwood, Sarah (January 22, 2017). "Trump hints at re-election bid, vowing 'eight years' of 'great things'". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved February 21, 2017.
  2. ^ Murphy, Mike (March 28, 2018). "How to Primary Trump in 2020". Politico. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
  3. ^ Quinton, Sophie; Povich, Elaine S. (November 9, 2018). "So Much Changed in Statehouses This Week. Here's What It All Means". Stateline. The Pew Charitable Trusts.
  4. ^ Sarlin, Benjy (August 26, 2014). "Forget 2016: Democrats already have a plan for 2020". MSNBC. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  5. ^ Coleman, Miles. "2016 State PVI Changes". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved November 9, 2017.
  6. ^ "2018 State & Legislative Partisan Composition" (PDF). NCSL. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
  7. ^ "2018 Midterm Election Results: Live". New York Times. Retrieved November 7, 2018.