2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election Article

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Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018

←  2014 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2022 →
  Charlie Baker official photo (cropped).jpg Jay Gonzalez, 2017 (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Charlie Baker Jay Gonzalez
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Karyn Polito Quentin Palfrey
Popular vote 1,781,982 886,281
Percentage 66.8% 33.2%

Massachusetts gubernatorial election results by municipality, 2018.svg
Official municipal results

Governor before election

Charlie Baker
Republican

Elected Governor

Charlie Baker
Republican

The 2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Republican Governor Charlie Baker and Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito sought reelection to a second term in office, facing Democratic challengers Jay Gonzalez and Quentin Palfrey, respectively. Candidates were selected in the primary election held on September 4, 2018.

Shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. local time, the Associated Press declared the race in favor of incumbents Baker and Polito. [1] Shortly after 9 p.m. location time, Gonzalez conceded the election. [2]

Baker was reelected with the highest vote total in the history of Massachusetts gubernatorial elections and by the widest margin since Bill Weld was reelected governor in 1994.

Background

Charlie Baker was elected in 2014 by a slim margin over then-Attorney General Martha Coakley, however he has consistently rated as one of the most popular governors in the country. [3] Some Democrats, including Congressman Mike Capuano and Speaker of the House Bob DeLeo publicly speculated they may vote for Baker over the eventual Democratic nominee. [4] Speculated candidates such as Attorney General Maura Healey, Congressman Joe Kennedy, former State Senator Dan Wolf, and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh all declined to be candidates, leaving no prominent Democrats to challenge Baker, which was seen as a necessary prerequiste to mount a formidable challenge to him.

Because Evan Falchuk received more than 3% of the vote in the 2014 gubernatorial election, the United Independent Party gained official status. [5] Falchuck had stated that he would "certainly" run for office in 2018. [6] In 2016 however, the UIP lost its official party status after it failed to register 1% of Massachusetts voters as members. [7] Evan Falchuk later left the UIP and registered as a Democrat in early 2017. [8] [9]

Republican primary

Some conservative members of the Republican Party have stated that the Governor could face a Republican challenger in 2018 if he is too moderate. GOP state committeeman Robert Cappucci told the Boston Herald that if Baker "shuns conservatives [...] there will be 100 percent an effort to try to find a conservative, viable candidate to challenge him in 2018 for governor". David Kopacz, the president of the Massachusetts Republican Assembly, has also stated that Baker may face a conservative challenger in 2018. [10]

Following his 2016 election, Barnstable County Commissioner Ron Beaty, who once was tried and convicted for threatening the life of President George H. W. Bush, [11] has been making local and state headlines. He's proposed a "shark mitigation strategy" to combat the growing presence of sharks near Cape Cod beaches by baiting and shooting them, which was rejected for consideration by the commission chairman. He has also mulled a primary run against his State Representative Randy Hunt, after Hunt parked in his Barnstable County Courthouse parking spot. In September, 2017 he announced he was in the process of changing the purpose of his campaign committee from a county to a statewide office. He cites the Governor's criticisms of President Donald Trump and his willingness to work with Democrats as his inspiration to run. [12] On December 8, 2017 Scott Lively announced his campaign. [13]

As of December 13, 2017 Beaty has stated he is no longer considering a run against Baker. [14] Scott Lively, an evangelical pastor, has challenged Baker and received more than the 15% of delegate votes necessary at the state convention to qualify for ballot access. Baker won the endorsement of the party by an overwhelming margin. [15]

Baker ultimately won the nomination, but not without Lively securing over a third of the primary vote, leading to speculation that Baker's more moderate disposition and opposition to President Trump may damage his general election chances with Republican base voters. [16]

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Declined

Endorsements

Charlie Baker
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Scott Lively
Local officials

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker
Scott
Lively
Other Undecided
MassINC June 22–25, 2018 399 ± 4.9% 70% 17% 2% 10%

Results

Convention
Republican convention vote, April 28 [15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Charlie Baker (incumbent) 1,577 69.8%
Republican Scott Lively 626 27.7%
Republican Other 57 2.5%
Total votes 2,260 100.0%
Primary
Republican gubernatorial primary results by municipality
Republican gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Baker—60–70%
  Baker—50–60%
Republican primary, September 4 [22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Charlie Baker (incumbent) 174,126 63.78%
Republican Scott Lively 98,421 36.05%
n/a All others 464 0.17%
Total votes 273,011 100.00%

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Declared

Results

Republican lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Polito—>90%
Republican primary results [23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Karyn Polito (incumbent) 204,914 98.8
n/a All others 2,571 1.2
Total votes 207,485 100.0

Democratic primary

In November 2014, after interviewing over a dozen Democratic operatives, strategists, and activists, Joshua Miller of The Boston Globe wrote that the party would be looking for a young, fresh candidate who can appeal to the party's progressive base. He identified Attorney General Maura Healey as being "the first name on many Democratic lists". [24] Samantha Lachman of The Huffington Post also identified Healey as a potential candidate for Governor in 2018 or in a future United States Senate race. [25]

As of July 2017, the declared candidates are relatively unknown to the state's voters. [26] Their identification by Democratic voters was bolstered by addressing the 2017 state Democratic Convention, which saw its largest attendance of around 3,000 delegates in years. [27]

On April 26, 2018 Setti Warren announced via Facebook that he was withdrawing from the race due to financial concerns. He stated he would not endorse either of his former opponents until the nomination is won. [28]

At the Massachusetts Democratic Convention in June, party delegates endorsed Gonzalez and Palfrey, but Bob Massie and Jimmy Tingle also surpassed the 15% threshold for ballot access by comfortable margins. [29] A poll from late June conducted by WBUR and MassInc. indicated that the contest for the Democratic nomination in the gubernatorial race is a toss-up, with Massie and Gonzalez being separated by a percentage smaller than the margin of error.

Gonzalez and Palfrey went on to win their respective nominations generously (winning almost every municipality in the state) and are headed into the general election to face their Republican counterparts.

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements

Jay Gonzalez
State-Wide Elected Officials
State legislators
Local elected officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Setti Warren (withdrew)
Officials
Organizations
Bob Massie
State legislators
Local elected officals
Party officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jay
Gonzalez
Bob
Massie
Other Undecided
MassINC June 22–25, 2018 418 ± 4.9% 21% 15% 7% 52%

Results

Democratic gubernatorial primary results by municipality
Democratic gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Gonzalez—70–80%
  Gonzalez—60–70%
  Gonzalez—50–60%
Democratic primary results [70]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jay Gonzalez 348,434 63.17
Democratic Bob Massie 192,404 34.88
n/a All others 10,742 1.95
Total votes 551,580 100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Declared
Declined

Endorsements

Quentin Palfrey
National figures
State legislators
Local elected officials
Organizations
Unions
Jimmy Tingle
Federal legislators
State legislators

Results

Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:
  Palfrey—70–80%
  Palfrey—60–70%
  Palfrey—50–60%
  Tingle—40–50%
Democratic primary results [74]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Quentin Palfrey 307,240 58.5
Democratic Jimmy Tingle 214,204 40.8
n/a All others 3,757 0.4
Total votes 525,201 100.0

General election

Debates

Endorsements

All individuals belong to the nominee's party unless otherwise specificed.

Charlie Baker
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Jay Gonzalez
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
State-Wide Elected Officials
State legislators
Local elected officals
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report [89] Solid R September 14, 2018
The Washington Post [90] Likely R October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [91] Solid R October 17, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [92] Solid R September 14, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [93] Safe R September 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [94] Safe R October 9, 2018
Daily Kos [95] Safe R September 5, 2018
Fox News [96] [a] Likely R October 9, 2018
Politico [97] Solid R October 9, 2018
Governing [98] Safe R October 2, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charlie
Baker (R)
Jay
Gonzalez (D)
Other Undecided
MassINC October 25–28, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 68% 25% 2% 2%
Suffolk University October 24–28, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 65% 26% 8%
Western New England University October 10–27, 2018 402 LV ± 5.0% 65% 27% 7%
485 RV ± 4.0% 64% 25% 10%
UMass Lowell October 1–7, 2018 485 LV ± 5.6% 66% 27% 5% 3%
791 RV ± 4.4% 65% 26% 6% 2%
MassINC September 17–21, 2018 506 ± 4.4% 68% 24% 1% 6%
Suffolk University September 13–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 55% 28% 17%
Suffolk University June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 52% 22% 25%
MassINC May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 60% 20% 1% 19%
MassINC March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 60% 21% 2% 15%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017 503 ± 4.4% 59% 19% 3% 18%
MassINC June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 55% 22% 1% 20%

Results

Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018 [99]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Charlie Baker / Karyn Polito (incumbent) 1,781,982 66.60% +18.20%
Democratic Jay Gonzalez / Quentin Palfrey 886,281 33.12% -13.42%
n/a Write-ins 7,504 0.28% +0.19%
Total votes 2,674,615 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

References

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  88. ^ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote:". Twitter.
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  98. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
  99. ^ "PD43+ >> 2018 Governor General Election". Massachusetts Elections Division.

External links

Official campaign websites for gubernatorial candidates
Official campaign websites for lieutenant gubernatorial candidates